Live Bloomberg ticker as of read; refresh closer to local open for moving levels.
| Instrument | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,127.68 | +0.16% |
| Nasdaq | 24,604.70 | +0.24% |
| Bloomberg 500 (B500) | 2,566.84 | +0.28% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,213.11 | +1.16% |
| US 10y Treasury | 4.40% | unch |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | +0.16% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.23% |
| Crude oil | $105.75 | +5.82% |
| Gold | $4,568.20 | +0.87% |
Crude is the day's defining tape. With Trump rebuffing Tehran's offer to swap a Hormuz reopening for a blockade lift, oil leapt nearly 6% on the Bloomberg ticker to roughly $105. The administration says nuclear-program guardrails come first; Iran says no negotiations until the fleet stands down. Hormuz throughput is at about 5% of pre-war norms and refined-product shortages are now visible across Asia. Bloomberg also flags growing concern that disruption could spread toward the Malacca Strait, a second-order shipping risk that would compound the squeeze.
The structural overlay is the UAE's OPEC exit — a Gulf realignment that does not fix the supply picture but does change the bargaining geometry inside the cartel. Watch how the energy shock filters through inflation prints over the next two weeks; Treasuries softened yesterday on the oil bid and the World Bank already projects commodity prices at a four-year high in 2026.
Yesterday's "80 seconds of earnings" set-piece delivered a split tape. Alphabet printed a clean beat with Google Cloud revenue up 63% y/y, vindicating the AI-capex story for now and pushing the stock higher after-hours. Meta raised full-year capex guidance to $125–145bn — well above the Street — and the stock dropped about 4% AH as the market wobbled on whether AI buildout returns are pacing the spend. Microsoft and Amazon both beat but trade was mixed; the futures setup pre-cash-open in Europe is constructive but fragile, and the Nasdaq closed only marginally green yesterday (+0.24%).
Adjacent stories: Brookfield's Compass pulled out of a major Virginia data-center build (a tell on power constraints), Blackstone is restructuring around a new dedicated AI unit, IBM is adding 750 AI/quantum jobs in Chicago, and Bloomberg flags China's "Manus" AI model as effectively dead after a regulator backlash on Meta's planned acquisition. China is also threatening retaliation against the EU if Brussels bans Huawei equipment.
Eight straight down days for the Stoxx 50 going into today, on the energy-margin / earnings-risk thesis. FTSE 100 closed +1.16% on the latest read — the UK index outperforms peers thanks to its energy-and-miners weighting in an oil-up regime. German CPI undershot expectations, supporting the ECB's case to defer any policy move while the Iran-war price shock washes through; euro-area economic sentiment fell across consumer, business and industry sub-indices.
Single names: UBS beat on trading and signalled a bigger buyback (Ermotti targeting completion of a $3bn programme by end-July). Deutsche Bank extended losses on loan provisions and a capital miss. Kone agreed to buy TK Elevator for €29.4bn — a sizeable European industrial M&A datapoint. Brown-Forman plunged after pulling out of deal talks. The Netherlands' planned wealth-tax revamp continues to draw fierce opposition. Trump publicly told Chancellor Merz he "doesn't know what he's talking about," adding noise to the transatlantic backdrop.
Mostly red as Asia digested the oil move and a hawkish Fed hold. Nikkei −0.91%, Topix −1.48%, Hang Seng −0.36%; Kospi +0.36% and CSI 300 +0.21% bucked the trend. The yen is pinned at the 160 handle versus the dollar — the line that has historically pulled the BOJ or MoF into the conversation. Bloomberg also reports Citadel has been cleared to begin operating in Dubai, another Gulf financial-centre milestone alongside the OPEC/UAE story.
RFK Jr.'s screening for heavy metals in baby formula came back largely empty — a relevant data point in the wider US food-and-drug regulatory churn. A US brain-implant company has reportedly run a first human test in China, an unusual cross-border regulatory route worth noting. France used the Colombia climate summit to unveil a fossil-fuel exit plan: coal by 2030, oil by 2045, gas by 2050 — aggressive on paper, executional question marks ahead.