Risk-off, with a live war premium and two central-bank events. The US launched a second round of strikes on Iran over stalled peace talks — oil jumped (WTI ~$91, Brent ~$94), global stocks hit a one-month low and Iran is again threatening the Strait of Hormuz. That lands on a hot macro tape: Wednesday’s US CPI ran at +4.2% (a fresh three-year high) and today brings hot US PPI plus the ECB’s first rate hike since 2023 (a 25bp move is ~91% priced). Yet the AI capital machine keeps roaring: OpenAI has confidentially filed for an IPO, Anthropic (valued ~$965bn) is being readied to follow, and SpaceX’s float is more than four times oversubscribed.
Index levels below are the Bloomberg Europe “Top Securities” ticker read ~06:00 Rome Thursday. With US cash shut pre-open, the S&P / Nasdaq / Bloomberg 500 prints are Wednesday’s closing levels — a session dragged lower by the hot +4.2% CPI and the renewed Iran strikes (global stocks at a one-month low). Oil, gold, FX and rates trade round-the-clock and show the live risk-off: crude up on the strikes, gold choppy with a small haven bid, the euro firmer into the ECB. Today’s swing events are the ECB decision (14:15 Rome, presser 14:45) and US PPI (14:30), against an unresolved Hormuz threat.
Top of the morning
US strikes Iran a second time; oil jumps and global stocks hit a one-month low
Washington carried out a fresh wave of strikes on Iran, an escalation Bloomberg ties to Trump’s growing impatience over stalled peace talks. Crude rose (WTI ~$91, Brent ~$94) and global equities slid to a one-month low; Tehran is again threatening the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly targeted US vessels, while FT reports ~20,000 Iranians were left without water after a reservoir was hit. The cushion: ample stocks and “dark” tanker transits are keeping crude below $100 — FT’s Lex argues the much-feared supply crunch “has yet to arrive.” Copper fell to a three-week low; gold whipsawed.
ECB set for its first rate hike since 2023 as the energy shock lifts prices (decision today)
With the Iran-driven oil spike feeding through, markets price a ~91% chance of a 25bp ECB hike at 14:15 Rome, and economists see a second move by year-end. Bloomberg notes European corporate margins are poised for their first growth since 2022, helped by oil and AI. The euro is firmer into the decision (~1.16); Lagarde’s guidance on how far and fast the Bank goes is the real swing for European rates and the currency.
Hot US inflation hardens the hawkish-Fed turn; PPI due today
Wednesday’s US CPI jumped to +4.2% in May — a fresh ~three-year high on the Middle East energy shock. JPMorgan calls May the CPI “high-water mark” with the Fed set to hold, but FT says rising prices plus a robust labour market point to a more hawkish Fed message. Today’s US PPI is seen hot (~+6.4% y/y headline, core ~+5.4%) with jobless claims near 220k. Global junk debt, Bloomberg warns, is “flashing a stagflation warning” — and one column floats uncomfortable 1929 parallels.
The AI IPO gold rush accelerates: OpenAI files, Anthropic readied, SpaceX 4x oversubscribed
OpenAI has confidentially filed to go public; Bloomberg’s Big Take inside Anthropic pegs the Claude maker near $965bn (CEO Dario Amodei reportedly has just one direct report). SpaceX’s IPO is more than four times oversubscribed — short-seller Jim Chanos is bearish, citing “hopes and dreams.” Funding the buildout: FT reports Apollo and Blackstone raised a $35bn private-credit package for Anthropic’s chips, one of the largest such deals yet. The refrain from both desks: brace for a wave of new equity supply.
Asia under pressure: BOJ governor hospitalised, China e-commerce slides, FX fight goes offshore
BOJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised and will miss next week’s meeting — where the Bank is expected to raise rates to 1% — fuelling nerves over policy messaging. Alibaba and JD.com fell after Beijing slammed price-cut promotions; Asia’s currency fight moved offshore as central banks pushed back, and Indonesia’s bond selloff resumed. FT reports China abruptly cancelled high-level meetings with the EU as trade tensions deepen.
Europe & geopolitics: G7 diplomacy on Russia, a fighter-jet split, Belfast unrest
Europeans will seek Trump’s buy-in at the G7 for peace talks with Russia (Trump and Meloni lauded Modi’s record tenure before the summit). Germany scrapped its €100bn joint fighter-jet venture with France and wants to lead a new project — leaving Europe at a defence crossroads. In the UK, Belfast saw anti-migrant riots and a knife attack, and London threatened 14-year prison terms after Iran-linked attacks on Jews; the Czech Republic vowed to block EU sanctions on an Israeli minister.
Cracks beneath the boom: private credit and PE strain as defaults loom
FT’s dispatch from the industry’s annual jamboree: private equity “parties as LPs wait for cash,” with firms unable to sell holdings at desired valuations and Apollo’s Scott Kleinman conceding the industry got “a little out of whack.” Pimco warns a wave of defaults is coming for low-quality borrowers; Bloomberg flags retail investors eyeing the private-credit exits, with a record >$8tn now parked in money-market funds. The throughline: the AI buildout increasingly rides on private credit just as the first cracks show.
FT portfolio signal · tied to your holdings
What FT flagged for your book
Macro / regime read. The tone is risk-off on a live energy shock plus a double dose of central-bank tightening — but the dashboard’s regime gauges, while elevated, are not yet at a severe trigger. The standout is the energy tail: the second round of US-Iran strikes lifted crude, yet FT’s Lex and Bloomberg both stress ample stocks and “dark” Hormuz tanker transits are keeping it below $100 — “the much-feared crunch has yet to arrive.” A genuine Hormuz closure is the line that would change the regime. Rates/inflation skew hawkish: a +4.2% CPI, a hot PPI today and an ECB hike harden the read — a headwind for high-multiple and rate-sensitive names — and junk debt is “flashing a stagflation warning.” Credit cracks are widening (PE LPs waiting for cash; Apollo “out of whack”; Pimco’s default warning; the $35bn private-credit Anthropic deal). War-chest deployment rules stay dormant: respect this regime, don’t deploy into it.
AI capex (theme — your semis/cloud shelf). FT’s $35bn Apollo/Blackstone private-credit package financing Anthropic’s chips is a strong AI-capex demand signal that reads through to the custom-silicon and lithography shelf (Broadcom, ASML and the cloud names) — and a marker of how much of the buildout now sits on private credit. The new wrinkle: a public “state-owned AI” policy debate, worth tracking as a regulatory watch-item.
Amazon (shelf single-name). Surfaces only indirectly — via the $1.4bn round for German humanoid-robot maker Neura, backed by Tether, Amazon and Nvidia. A small but real AI/robotics-capex tag on a direct holding; no standalone Amazon catalyst in the window.
Healthcare & payments corners quiet. No GLP-1 (Novo Nordisk / Eli Lilly), UnitedHealth, Vertex, Thermo Fisher, Intuitive Surgical, Visa, Mastercard, Berkshire, Caterpillar, Deere, Booking, Nike or Costco single-name items in the FT feed today — the shelf’s defensive corners had no fresh signal.
Shelf single-names live today: none at the name level — the only direct tag is Amazon (via the Neura robotics round). The actionable read is theme-level: AI-capex demand (the $35bn Anthropic financing) set against a hawkening rate backdrop and visibly fraying private credit.
Net: risk-off on a live oil shock and a hawkish ECB/Fed backdrop, with credit cracks worth watching — but no severe trigger, so war-chest rules stay sheathed. The AI capital machine (OpenAI’s filing, Anthropic’s $35bn financing, SpaceX oversubscribed) keeps the shelf’s structural thesis intact. Watch-line: the Strait of Hormuz, the ECB path and any widening in private-credit stress.
Markets snapshot
Bloomberg Europe “Top Securities” ticker, read ~06:00 Rome Thursday. US cash is shut pre-open, so the S&P / Nasdaq / Bloomberg 500 prints are Wednesday’s closing levels — a hot-CPI, Iran-strike selloff that left global stocks at a one-month low. Oil, gold, FX and rates trade round-the-clock; the move column compares to yesterday’s briefing levels where useful.
Instrument
Last
Move / context
S&P 500
7,266.99
−1.6% · Wed close · hot CPI + Iran; one-month low
Nasdaq
25,169.50
−2.0% · AI names led lower
Bloomberg 500
2,625.09
−1.7% · broad risk-off
FTSE 100
10,254.81
+0.3% · oil majors cushion the index
US 10-year Treasury
4.54%
steady · hot CPI keeps the hawkish bid
EUR/USD
~1.16
firmer into the ECB hike
GBP/USD
~1.34
steady to a touch firmer
Crude Oil (WTI)
~$91.11
+1.2% · Iran strikes; Brent ~$94
Gold (spot)
~$4,098.70
+0.8% on the day · choppy haven bid; still soft on the week
Figures transcribed from the Bloomberg Europe “Top Securities” ticker. Pre-open Thursday the US index prints remain Wednesday’s cash close — the hot-CPI, Iran-strike session that pushed global equities to a one-month low. Crude, gold, FX and rates reflect the live risk-off (oil bid on the strikes; gold whipsawing; the euro firmer into the ECB). ECB at 14:15 Rome and US PPI at 14:30 are the next catalysts.
Global markets & macro
Two forces are pulling against each other this morning. On one side, a textbook risk-off: the second round of US strikes on Iran put a war premium back into oil (WTI ~$91, Brent ~$94), pushed global equities to a one-month low and sent copper to a three-week low, with Tehran again rattling the Strait of Hormuz. On the other, the inflation data is forcing a hawkish repricing — Wednesday’s US CPI ran at +4.2%, a fresh three-year high, and today’s US PPI is expected hot (~+6.4% y/y), with jobless claims near 220k. The 10-year sits at ~4.54%, junk debt is “flashing a stagflation warning,” and JPMorgan’s hope that May marks the CPI “high-water mark” is colliding with FT’s view that a robust labour market argues for a more hawkish Fed message. The marquee European event is the ECB at 14:15 Rome: a 25bp hike — its first since 2023 — is ~91% priced, with the euro firmer (~1.16) and Lagarde’s guidance the swing factor.
Through all of it, the AI capital-formation machine runs flat out. OpenAI has confidentially filed for an IPO; Anthropic, valued near $965bn, is being readied to follow; SpaceX’s float is more than four times oversubscribed (even as Jim Chanos calls the valuation “hopes and dreams”); and FT reports a $35bn Apollo/Blackstone private-credit package financing Anthropic’s chips. Both Bloomberg and FT keep circling the same paradox: this wave of new equity and private-credit supply is a vote of confidence in the buildout, yet it can also drain liquidity from existing stocks and concentrate risk in private credit just as that market shows strain (PE firms struggling to return cash, Pimco warning on defaults, retail edging toward the exits, a record >$8tn sitting in money funds). Asia traded heavy — BOJ Governor Ueda’s hospitalisation clouds next week’s expected hike to 1%, Alibaba and JD.com fell on Beijing’s pricing crackdown, and Indonesia’s bond selloff resumed. FX was contained: the euro near 1.16, sterling around 1.34.
Geopolitics & world news
The Middle East is back at the center of the tape. The US launched a second round of strikes on Iran, an escalation Bloomberg attributes to Trump’s impatience over stalled peace talks; Tehran is again threatening the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly targeted US vessels, and FT reports roughly 20,000 Iranians left without water after a reservoir was struck. Markets are reading it mostly through oil — up, but still under $100, with ship traffic thinning in the Gulf and “dark” tanker transits and ample inventories so far preventing a genuine crunch. Washington also asked to drop the Iran sanctions case against Turkey’s Halkbank, a sign of the wider diplomatic chessboard.
In Europe, the G7 is the focal point: European leaders will seek Trump’s buy-in for peace talks with Russia, while Germany’s decision to scrap its €100bn joint fighter-jet venture with France has left the continent debating whether it can build a next-generation jet at all. Domestic strains are visible too — anti-migrant riots and a knife attack in Belfast, UK threats of 14-year prison terms after Iran-linked attacks on Jews, and a Czech vow to block EU sanctions on an Israeli minister. In Asia, China abruptly cancelled high-level meetings with the EU as trade tensions deepen. For the medical reader, two Bloomberg threads stand out: a feature arguing US policy changes have weakened pandemic preparedness, and a piece on China courting foreign patients with cutting-edge, lower-cost care — both worth a longer look on a quieter day.
Today & week ahead (CET)
Thu 11ECB rate decision · 14:15 (presser 14:45) — first hike since 2023 expected (+25bp, ~91% priced); Lagarde’s guidance on the path is the swing for EUR and European rates
Thu 11US PPI (May) · 14:30 — seen hot (~+6.4% y/y headline, core ~+5.4%), following the +4.2% CPI · US jobless claims ~220k · WASDE 17:00
Thu 11G7 summit diplomacy — Europeans seeking Trump buy-in on Russia peace talks · FIFA World Cup 2026 under way
Next wkBOJ decision — expected to hike to 1% (Governor Ueda hospitalised, set to miss it)
WatchStrait of Hormuz / Iran escalation & oil · ECB & Fed rate-path · private-credit stress · China–EU tensions · the AI IPO supply wave