Levels read this morning from the Bloomberg Europe live ticker. Asia mixed overnight, European futures firm, US bonds little changed into Thursday's core PCE.
| Instrument | Last | Change / context |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,508.55 | +0.47% · pressing back toward records |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,579.05 | +0.89% · AI/chips lead |
| Bloomberg 500 | 2,712.26 | +0.53% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,491.39 | +0.24% |
| Nikkei 225 | ~64,999 | flat · gave up a fresh record intraday |
| Hang Seng | — | −1.03% · cross-border curbs bite |
| CSI 300 | 4,908.53 | −0.79% |
| Kospi | 8,228.70 | +2.52% · memory-chip rally |
| US 10-year Treasury | 4.50% | unchanged into PCE |
| EUR/USD | 1.160 | +0.20% |
| GBP/USD | 1.340 | +0.48% |
| WTI crude | $93.87 | +2.83% · war premium rebuilds |
| Brent crude | — | +4.23% (FT live) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,540.00 | +0.36% · geopolitical hedge holds |
| Ferrari (RACE) | — | −8.37% on EV unveiling |
Risk appetite is steady but the tape has split: equities want to grind to new highs while oil is quietly rebuilding the geopolitical premium it surrendered last week. The S&P 500 is +0.47% pressing back to record territory, the Nasdaq is +0.89% with AI/chip names leading (Micron extending after UBS's $1.8 trillion market-cap projection, Kospi +2.5% sympathetic), and the FTSE 100 is +0.24%. Asia is split: Nikkei flat after touching a fresh record, Hang Seng −1.03% and CSI 300 −0.8% as Beijing's cross-border equity curbs and AI-talent travel restrictions continue to weigh; one mainland trading tycoon reportedly lost $1.7bn in a day on the move. Gold at $4,540 and the firm euro complete the “risk-on with a hedge” picture.
Rates and corporate news are where the next catalysts sit. The US 10-year is holding 4.50% into Thursday's core PCE (last 3.2% y/y) — the data point the Fed-cut debate is hinged on, with Dudley publicly warning the case for cuts is “very, very weak”. UK gilts already had their biggest weekly yield drop since 2023 on Burnham's fiscal-rules pledge, and ECB officials are explicitly laying the groundwork for a June rate hike with Lane telling Nikkei inflation projections will be revised up. On stocks: Ferrari is the standout loser (−8.4%) after its EV unveiling fell flat with investors; BP is in a governance moment after firing its chair; Italy's CDP is moving to raise its stake in payments group Nexi (with CVC weighing a bid); Uber is reportedly considering a higher bid for Delivery Hero after a €11.5bn rebuff; JPMorgan is launching its German retail bank; and the SpaceX IPO roadshow has begun, dragging adjacent rocket and satellite names sharply higher.
The US-Iran track is “ceasefire, not peace.” US forces struck missile-launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what Washington frames as self-defence, while officials describe negotiations as advancing “back and forth.” Khamenei signalled there is no return to the pre-war regional order, and the key sticking points — the enriched-uranium stockpile, sanctions sequencing and Iran's regional proxies — remain unresolved. Israel has ordered an intensified campaign against Hizbollah in Lebanon in parallel, and toxic fumes from Tehran oil fires now reportedly cover an area the size of Italy. The market's read — oil up, gold up, equities up but cautious — is exactly the right shape for a fragile pause.
Two other big threads: Russia and Ukraine, and the AI-geopolitics axis. Moscow's instruction to the US to evacuate diplomats and citizens from Kyiv, the overnight Oreshnik missile barrage, the GPS jamming of the UK defence secretary's plane near the Russian border, and the loss of nine ammunition-coalition members since December all point to a more confrontational Russian summer. On AI: China has expanded travel curbs on top AI talent at private firms, Qualcomm has struck an exclusive chip deal with ByteDance, the ECB has summoned euro-area banks over AI-model risk, and Stanford research is flagging racial disparities in AI hiring. Finally, on global health — particularly relevant for the medical reader — the WHO is openly warning the DR Congo Ebola outbreak is outpacing the response under conditions of armed conflict, even as the Oxford Covid team's Ebola vaccine nears trial production. Pope Leo has separately said AI “needs to be disarmed.”